What has happened so far in the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh War?
Six weeks, thousands dead, failed ceasefires, war crimes, terrorists - a meltdown of a long frozen conflict
You would be forgiven if your understanding of the current 2020 war in Nagorno Karabakh is basic, if not completely lacking. Media coverage of the conflict has been very muted (though not non-existent); the main reason being the many important issues that have taken precedence right now, such as Covid-19, or the election in the USA. To state that this timing was not a coincidence but instead a careful strategy by Azerbaijan would be reasonably more than just conjecture.
Perhaps this is what motivated you to click this link to learn more. Indeed, I have had several people I know ask me how it is going, asking questions and expressing their opinions (which is always great). It is also what encouraged me to write in the first place. I will from now provide updates regularly, so please follow!
In terms of where I get my news - as well as news outlets, surprisingly Twitter, which is the bedrock of up-to-date information, but also requires sifting through a lot of gruesome content, fake news, bots, idiotic opinions, and manic chauvinism. It is a particularly tough task for someone like me who is fairly social media averse, but the situation leaves me with no choice. I do not post facts unless they are verifiable.
I have organised the main pieces of information into headlines below:
- Positional Summary
- Failed ceasefires
- Drone warfare : the bloodluster’s dream
- Mercenaries: a new front of Terrorism
- War crimes
- International Reaction
- What’s going to happen next?
Positional Summary
The war started on September 27 and is in its sixth week. Azerbaijani troops made swift advances in the first few weeks in the southern regions of Artsakh, causing the Armenian troops to retreat. These weeks were also the most severe: major use of armor, tanks, shelling, and the most brutal weapon to dominate the advance, drones . The toll was supremely heavy for both sides. Both have over thousands dead (Putin puts number at 5,000: Source), and huge losses in equipment amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars. Turkey has been exceptionally vocal about supporting the war and has been supplying Azerbaijan soldiers, mercenaries and equipment.
What was the reason for retreat? The south of Artsakh is open, flat terrain, making advance easier and defence against drones very difficult. Armenian troops were getting pummelled, to the delight of the Azeri public (more details in section below). Armenians say it was a tactical retreat to mountainous terrain, which has some merit, but also opens up questions such as “why was there no effective defence strategy against drones in the first place?”
In the last fortnight, however, the momentum appears to have slowed down as the war shifted to the higher terrain, where Armenians have the territorial advantage. The style of warfare has changed as well: instead of large armour assaults, the battles are smaller - insurrection units spread in deep forests and gorges.
Currently the battle is centred on two key positional objectives: the fortress-town of Shushi (of big symbolic value to Azerbaijan) and the Berdzor corridor (the main highway linking Armenia to Artsakh). The battles for these are ongoing and incredibly fierce: Armenia knows that if it loses either one, it effectively loses the war. Azerbaijan knows they are running out of time, as winter approaches their positional disadvantage will only worsen.
For interactive map of conflict and to visualise events, best source is: https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/
Failed ceasefires
Three ceasefires have come and gone:
- October 9th: MFAs of Russia (key neutral mediator and Minsk Group co-chair), Armenia and Azerbaijan talk for 10 hours, eventually agreeing to a ceasefire the next day. This is quickly broken same day
- October 17th: Again, ceasefire agreement reached with Russia. This is broken the same day.
- October 26th: This time, USA brokers the ceasefire. “I call that an easy one,” boasts Trump. This is broken nearly as soon as it is implemented.
One of the more amusing fails was Azerbaijan’s MOD stating that Artsakh violated the third ceasefire at 8:00AM, the exact minute the ceasefire had started(left). They quickly deleted the tweet. Perhaps it shows they have no intention of ever stopping the fire.
Why are the ceasefires not working? It is simple- without third party peace mediators on the ground, what is stopping military actions to continue? There is no reliable way without mediators to prove which side keeps breaking the ceasefire. The Armenian side has repeatedly called for Russian mediators, but Azerbaijan flatly refuses each time. Iran have recently thrown their hat in as an alternative to Russia, and have amassed troops at the Artsakh border (this is also to counter military activity that strays into their territory, which has occurred already several times).
Drone warfare : the bloodluster’s dream
Drones have been used in warfare for many years now, either as a surveillance tool or for attack purposes (to help increase accuracy of artillery shots or indeed attack themselves using missiles or on suicide mode). Both sides have deployed a range of drones, but Azerbaijan’s arsenal is superior. Two key partners have supplied them: Israel (Harop suicide drones) and Turkey (Bayraktar TB2).
Why are drones so effective? At high altitudes they can be almost impossible to shoot down by missile defences. They can also loiter in the air for hours, meaning that they can sit and wait for the perfect moment to strike and inflict maximum damage.
But they are also incredibly effective psychologically. Not just for the troops who have to hear the whirring of invisible machines flying overhead, but for the public. Azerbaijan’s MOD has released video after incredibly bloody video of soldiers getting blown to bits by drones. This despicable behaviour has been received with fervent enjoyment by bloodlusting supporters, whilst having a terrifying impact for the ones watching aghast.
The most potent drone in their arsenal is the Bayraktar TB2 drone. It is a highly capable source of Turkish national pride (and it is very likely being controlled by them, not Azeris), and has been tried and tested killing in other conflicts such as in Libya (for NATO’s benefit):
Some drones have been successfully shot down. A deep investigation of the TB2’s found that many of the components are built by international companies, rather than by Turkey itself. Huge pressure has been made to stop these companies from supplying Turkey, and many of them have already agreed to do so, those highlighted in the image above. Some claim they did not directly sell to Baykar, others even state their product is not intended for military use entirely. Whether or not their statements are completely true, it does mean that Turkey now needs to find new ways to source these components if they are to keep supplying Azerbaijan with these machines.
Israel, on the other hand, has also been pressured to stop selling drones, but so far no progress has been achieved. Israel has deep economic ties to Azerbaijan (almost entirely dependent on its oil), plus Azerbaijan has a significant Jewish population (rare for a predominately Muslim country), therefore do not see reason to stop, much to the chagrin of the Armenian Prime Minister.
In the last few days it seems that drone usage has severely diminished, to the cheer of Armenians on Twitter. However, it is not clear whether they are not being deployed due to the recent bad weather, or if indeed Azerbaijan are running out of drones to deploy. In any case a window of good weather is coming next week which will surely confirm the reality.
Mercenaries: a new front of Terrorism
Azerbaijan, via Turkey, is receiving thousands of illegal mercenaries from Syria and Libya to participate in the war. This is a tactic they used also in the war of 1988–1994 by hiring the Mujahideen, same era when Osama Bin Laden was a prominent organiser (Source). This time, it has deeply troubled the likes of Russia, France and Iran, who all have proof of these mercenaries and are increasingly bothered.
Though there is no reason to have sympathy for these terrorists, who are being killed disproportionately in the war as front line cannon-fodder, it is worth noting why a so many are packing their bags to fight in a conflict that means nothing to them (while Armenia is a Christian country and Azerbaijan Muslim, the conflict has pretty much nothing to do with religion).
Many terrorists are poor and forced by Turkey, their key backer of arms and support in Syria, to go fight in Azerbaijan, with prospect of being paid $2,000 salary. This is serious money for a terrorist. It is reported that many do not end up getting paid, and due to the high death rate, many are now refusing to fight, and are returning home.
The actions of Azerbaijan risk opening up a new extremism front in the South Caucasus, because they are placing these terrorists on the lands Azerbaijan occupied in the south of Artsakh. This may even poke the Russian bear to react.
War crimes
WARNING: Some may find distressing.
In six weeks a significant amount of cruelty has been perpetrated:
- Shelling: both sides of the conflict have targeted civilian populations, leavings scores dead. The indiscriminate nature of Azeri shelling has been obvious, targeting cathedrals, monuments and hospitals. Armenia defends themselves by saying strikes are retaliatory and that Azerbaijan deploys military equipment next to civilian centres. Although this is verifiable, it certainly does not justify their of killing civilians in the process either.
- Cluster munitions: Using cluster munitions are banned weapons, because they are incredibly dangerous to civilians. A missile throws out hundreds of bomblets, and some don’t explode, which means unaware people could pick them up. Organisations like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty has published an article to condemn the usage of cluster bombs by Azerbaijan and Armenia
- Over 90,000 civilians have been forced to flee their homes and are now taking refuge in Armenia, many of whom have lost everything in the combat
- Executions/Mutilations: Third party sources have verified horrifying reports of Azeri troops executing civilians, mutilations, beheadings, and slicing ears off of dead soldiers to keep as tokens. Bellingcat reported the execution in detail, and the BBC article about it is here.
- POW Treatment: Azeri videos show captured Artsakh POWs being treated badly, and POWs being forced into humiliation by repeating the words “Karabakh is Azerbaijan”.
These actions only serve to solidify the mutual distrust of the two nations and make the prospect of any sort of future reconciliation even bleaker. It is also evident to any observer that Azeri intentions were never to protect ethnic Armenians but to drive them out of their homelands forever, despite official rhetoric.
International Reaction
We have left the initial stupid weeks where countries were “expressing concern”, two insulting words to describe a war. Here are what the main countries think:
- UK: Is staying away from this conflict. Dominic Raab has called for end to fighting and proposed sending £1million aid to Karabakh’s population (Source).
- Russia: Has a strategic partnership with both countries. It also has a military base in Armenia proper and has vowed to defend Armenia if it was attacked (this does not extend to Artsakh, which is not part of Armenia). Therefore it has tried to remain neutral… although as mentioned appears to be quite tested by the presence of terrorist mercenaries
- Iran: Also another neutral party, offered to help mediate future ceasefires and visited both countries to offer a peace proposal (details not public).
- USA: Failed to implement ceasefire. Biden claims he would take a far less passive role than Trump’s administration has (Source)
- France: A co-chair of Minsk group with USA/Russia. Although Macron has shown plenty of disdain for Azeri actions, France has stressed to keep neutral so it’s co-chair position is not undermined (Source). France is typically very sympathetic to Armenians due to their long historical friendship.
Recognition of Artsakh: No UN country recognises Artsakh, but this is a huge diplomatic target for Armenia, because it validates Artsakh’s right to self determination. Some small momentum in this direction has been seen, with city states / provinces such as Corsica (France), Fresno (USA), Palermo (Italy) and many others adopting bills to recognise the country. However, until one single country recognises it, this has only symbolic value.
What’s going to happen next?
It is very hard to predict since every day right now is critical. Currently the battles for Shushi and the Berdzor road are fierce and ongoing, and these military operations will make or break Artsakh. Diplomatically, there may be possibility for further ceasefire soon, but this will not work again if no neutral mediator is established to monitor and stop violations (something Azerbaijan does not agree to). Presence of terrorism might also escalate the urgency of reaction from international observers.
The sad question to ask is, is Azerbaijan in too deep? President Aliyev has successfully united oppositions his country together to share the common desire to reverse the results of the previous war. Thousands of lives are being lost, and without reaching complete success of all territorial objectives, he might find it impossible to stop the war without severe reproachment by his people. This does not bode well either for Artsakh, because it is hard to gauge how long they can survive the onslaught, at a huge economic and military disadvantage, even if morale is high. And crucially, are the wounds just going to deepen as a result of this conflict? Right now that seems inevitable, which spells trouble for anyone of us wishing that one day these nations would be able to peacefully coexist side by side.
