The Ceasefire and Capitulation of Nagorno Karabakh
The six week war abruptly ends in turmoil: Azerbaijan brings the Artsakh to its knees, aided by the powers of Russia and Turkey. From this, expect mass expulsions, ethnic cleansing and the bitter implications for future conflicts
This article is split into three sections:
- A piece by me
- The outcome of the war / why did Artsakh lose
- The devastating future that lies ahead
A piece by me
Monday was one of the worst days of my life. I am sad to say I was not able to hold it together at work the next day, my manager gave me the afternoon off. When I wrote my previous piece on Saturday, I did not expect that a few days later the war would finish with such a calamity.
That Monday, I will remember seeing a strange chain of events unfold that ended with the signing of a tremendously painful ceasefire. Firstly, Azerbaijan posted a video of their occupation of the strategic city of Shushi (it turns out the city had completely fallen two days before). Next, an Armenian MP breaks ranks to confirm Shushi’s fall, although officials were still insisting the fighting continued. In the night a Russian helicopter flying in Armenia proper crashed far away from the front line, killing two pilots. Azerbaijan quickly owned up to shooting it and apologised. This should have been a flagrant breach of the Armenian-Russian defence alliance, but Russia stood silent. Suddenly, Azerbaijan announces that the war is over, mentioning major capitulations by Artsakh. Some time later the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan confirms this in a Facebook post. Naturally, the shock of this completely unexpected news sent Armenians in a tailspin; protesting, demanding answers, crying out in disbelief. Pashinyan later in the night went on Facebook live on two occasions, rambling angrily, it was too confusing and too much to take.
On that Monday I saw in front of my very own eyes the tragic history of the Armenian people repeat itself once again. I saw Russia again deciding what happens to my homeland and reasserting their supremacy. I saw Turkey again being the perpetrator of excruciating harm to my people. I saw the rest of the world not coming to the defence of civilians who have been screaming for self-determination in the last years, to the defence of thousands of soldiers lost. Effectively, the world has allowed two corrupt, authoritarian dictators Aliyev and Erdogan- two leaders with immense hatred of Armenians- to completely have their way with Artsakh.
My heart is broken. I have been like a zombie in the last days, but unfortunately, I also know the worst is yet to come. Hundreds of thousands of civilians still lie displaced. Lands with intangible monuments lie defenceless to destruction. The political state of Armenia and its Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is still up in the air.
The outcome of the war / Why did Artsakh lose
The terms of the agreement signed on Monday night were a huge political victory for President Aliyev of Azerbaijan. Much of the land of the Artsakh republic will be ceded to Azerbaijan. Any territory already captured will be kept, including the city of Shushi. In fact a new road will have to be built by Armenians to bypass the city altogether.
Russian peacekeepers have poured in to guard what is left of Artsakh and to establish a 5km wide buffer road linking it to Armenia. But also a new road to link the Nakhichevan territory will be built that crosses through Armenia proper (see map). Aliyev cheerfully states he was able to put that demand in last minute.
Apart from tearing apart the country, the kowtow to Russia to save what’s left of Artsakh effectively has stripped it of it’s ability to self-govern. The eventual status of Artsakh is not defined and Azerbaijan will be waiting to pounce once the peacekeepers leave. Right now we can forget about any hope of self-determination of the people; their freedom has been vanquished.
Why did Artsakh lose?
“I do not know how history will evaluate the decision we made yesterday, but we were obliged to. Had the hostilities continued at the same pace, we would have lost the whole of Artsakh in a matter of days.” -Arayik Harutyunyan, President of Artsakh
Frankly, the decisive factor in winning the war was Azerbaijan’s supremacy of the air, especially using drones, which I mentioned in my last article. These drones were supplied by Turkey and Israel. It infuriates oneself to ask why this threat was not well-prepared against, but Pashinyan claims the military defencelessness was due to deeply-rooted corruption present before and during his time as Prime Minister.
Other reasons are the billions of petrodollars spent on weapons over the years (bought from many European countries and Russia) causing an imbalance in strength, and bringing illegal foreign mercenaries from Syria. A sad confession by Arayik Harutyunyan, President of Artsakh, reveals that Armenian soldiers were stretched to their limit, with no option to rotate front lines, whilst Covid-19 was raging among the ranks. People are upset the true state of affairs was not told to them during the conflict, but actions were defended so as not to demoralise the public. I think both sides are right.
The real punch in the stomach comes from the following: when Pashinyan came to power in Armenia following a velvet revolution in 2018, he was hailed in the West for bringing a new form of democracy in the Caucasus; meanwhile, this news was not well received in Russia, and tensions grew. Now a war has passed, and Russia has punished Armenia by not coming to its aid, a “that’s what you get if you challenge me” move. Whereas the West either could not or did not want to help.
So it is clear- Russia is Armenia’s only ‘friend’, but it will throw it under the bus at any opportunity if it doesn’t play by their rules.
The devastating future that lies ahead
Firstly as already mentioned, hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced. It remains to be seen, for those whose homes are not in the ceded territories, if they will return, or stay refugees altogether. The obvious master plan is to diminish the foothold of Armenians on their homeland until the time it can be completely gobbled up without impunity.
Secondly, many ceded intangible monuments lie exposed to whatever Azerbaijan wants to do with them. Some examples include:
- Amaras Monastery (4th Century), the first seminary school of Armenian Language
- Dadivank Monastery Complex (9–13th Century)
- Tigranakert (2–1 Century B.C.), city founded by Armenian king Tigranes the Great
- Shushi Cathedral (19th century), in Shushi town, it was already shelled twice during the recent conflict without a military site being anywhere close.
Right now Artsakh peoples are couriering artefacts from Artsakh to Armenia, desperate to save them. They know Azerbaijan have destroyed intangible cultural monuments before.
This would be Azerbaijan’s chance to extend an olive branch for the sake of regional stability but I don’t believe at all they will do it. Already their acting Culture Minister is on a mission to rewrite history: he posted on Twitter claiming Dadivank monastery isn’t Armenian at all, but Caucasus Albanian. His post even contains a photo with Armenian lettering… but it makes no difference, his brainwashed fans have no reason not to believe his every word. We all can only wait in fear to see what they will do. I have already written to UNESCO World Heritage, begging for assistance, but I do not expect a response.
“Ethnic cleansing” is a combination of forced mass expulsion alongside erasure of cultural history. I feel sick to say it’s going to happen at a huge scale in Artsakh, and no one is going to swoop in to help them.
And make no mistake: when it happens, another generation will live with hatred and resentment, and perhaps the region will remain unstable for more generations to come. This was one of the worst days of my life, but for all I know this could only be the start.
