5 months after ceasefire: 5 reasons why Azerbaijan has demonstrated it does not want to live with Armenians
It has been five months since the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia signed the November 10th ceasefire agreement that ended the violent elements of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war, a capitulation that I reported at the time in this previous article. Though it appears that on the ground the situation has remained fairly stable through the mediation of Russian peacekeepers, a huge question mark still remains over the eventual fate of this long-running conflict.
Despite the end to fighting, Armenia and Azerbaijan are still diametrically opposed to what this eventuality looks like. Armenia & Artsakh (another name for the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, the ethnic Armenians of that region) will continue their policy that the people of Artsakh must be given the right to their own self-determination. This would be done in the form of a “remedial secession”: a legal mechanism used previously by many countries to recognise Kosovo in 2008, it essentially argues that the child state could not exist safely under their existing parent borders. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, has no interest in this, and even recently threw off the table their previous promise of ‘highest degree of autonomy’ for this republic, within its own international borders.
Since Azerbaijan came out as the undisputed victor from the most recent conflict it has a choice: it could turn a new page, guarantee security to the indigenous people’s rights and livelihoods, and begin a careful process of integration that would build trust long non-existent in the region. Or it could work to ethnically cleanse the territory of it’s original peoples through acts of humiliation and cultural erasure, eventually homogenising the region with Azeris only.
Unfortunately, every action made so far has clearly followed the second path. In this article, I note five significant dimensions where Azerbaijan has shown it truly does not want to live with Armenians of Artsakh:
- It has not returned Prisoners Of War
Point 8 of the Nov 10 ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan agreement declares:
“The exchange of prisoners of war, hostages and other detainees as well as the remains of the fatalities shall be carried out”
On December 5th an exchange of POWs occurred: 44 Armenian and 12 Azeris. However, Azerbaijan is said to still be holding up to 240 prisoners, despite the ceasefire agreement. There is documented evidence by the Human Rights Watch that many are being abused in custody (link), a violation of Geneva convention principles on treatment of prisoners.
What benefit you may ask would this action be to Azerbaijan? Perhaps as a humiliation tactic, since the unlawful detention is carried out with impunity from the global community. More cynical commentators mull whether this hostage situation may be used for some kind of ‘flesh for land’ trade with Armenia. In any case, the fate of many Armenians remain unknown, and for some parents it is not even certain whether their children are still alive.
2. It is destroying cultural monuments
In the territories Azerbaijan moved into after the ceasefire, there is irrefutable evidence through satellite imagery and independent reports that already it has begun a process of destroying memorials, gravestones, homes, businesses and churches.
A monument to the 1915 genocide of Armenians by Ottoman Turkey has been torn down (Azerbaijan, like Turkey, denies the genocide happened). The BBC found that a church built in Jabrayil has been demolished down to the last brick (main article photo above), and a 19th century church in occupied Shushi has been turned into rubble (photo below). Notably, all of these acts occurred after November 10 ceasefire.
You might consider that these are the actions were made by rogue soldiers and do not reflect state policy. Unfortunately, this kind of thing is encouraged from the highest level. Father-son presidents Heydar and Ilham Aliyev have a track history in ethnically cleansing monuments of Armenian origin during their respective tenures as Azeri leaders. Prime examples in the past being the obliteration of the medieval Armenian cemetery in Julfa, and wiping out of the medieval Abrakunis church in Nakhichevan.
UNESCO should be the body that prevents this form of heritage erasure, but there is great speculation relating to its partiality. Recently, it came to surface that the UNESCO Director General Irina Bokova’s husband Karin Mitrev has been receiving payments of over $468,000 by the Azeri government, raising eyebrows as a potential ball gag to any condemnation (investigative report by the OCCRP). Putin had personally asked Aliyev to ensure the protection of monuments, but yet to see any Russian intervention or admonition.
3. It is running a falsification campaign to whitewash Armenian heritage off the map
In recent weeks, Ilham Aliyev visited the Hadrut region, an area historically populated by Armenians. During his visit to the Sourp Astvatsatsin Church in the village of Tsakuri, he vowed to whitewash 800 year old Armenian inscriptions on the church walls, insisting they were fake and in fact the church was ‘Caucasian Albanian’ in origin, not Armenian.
Caucasian Albania was an ancient kingdom that previously existed in the region centuries ago, and indeed its church was under the jurisdiction of the Armenian Apostolic Church since 8th century. Azerbaijanis, claiming themselves as direct descendants of this kingdom, prefer to spin an alternative theory that “Albanizes” Armenian monuments, because they can subsequently argue that Armenians never existed the area until recently.
4. It has opened a deeply racist Victory theme park
In one of the most horrific acts that really must be unthinkable in the 21st century, Azerbaijan has opened up a “theme park” to commemorate their victory. The Victory park proudly displays captured tanks, vehicles and includes a grotesque display of helmets taken from dead Armenian soldiers.
Positioned around the displays are wax figures of Armenian soldiers, heavily caricatured: “hooked noses, flat heads and small eyes, made to look as ugly as possible” as admitted by their designers. These figures are reminiscent of anti-Semitic caricatures of Jewish people made in the last regime by that evil regime — this should be condemnable even by those who understand little of the conflict. I ask myself how the citizens of Nagorno Karabakh feel about the prospect of living under such a Armenophobic regime, seeing how its government is actively encouraging its society to view them as subhuman?
The park has seen an influx of visitors since its opening day, and children under 6 go free — ensuring the next generation is also taught to despise their neighbours. Full thread with more imagery here.
5. It is setting their eyes on their next Armenian conquest
“Yerevan is historical Azerbaijani territory … but we don’t have any territorial claims … if we can go back to the Zangezur corridor why not Yerevan … but this doesn’t mean with tanks, it just means, ‘why not’? This is our position.” — Ilham Aliyev
Point 9 of the Nov. 10 ceasefire agreement says that all economic links in the region shall be unblocked. This includes railway links that link Russia to Armenia via Azerbaijan (Armenia and Russia do not share a border), Armenia’s borders with Turkey, and linking Nakhichevan, a separate region, to mainland Azerbaijan via southern Armenia. This would create new infrastructure for trade between the countries, as well as linking Turkey to the Caspian sea via Azerbaijan.
However, the agreement wording has not called for a “corridor” to be created in southern Armenia, where a strip of land is actually ceded to Azerbaijan. Despite this, Aliyev keeps using this terminology, a move which is antagonising the Armenian government.
Some eyes are set further than just a corridor. There is growing propaganda channels that claim that southern Armenia (Zangezur), is historically Azerbaijani territory and perhaps should be the next target for conquest. Indeed, Azerbaijanis did used to live there and in other parts of Armenia prior to population shifts during the “divide and conquer” strategies of the Soviet Union, or the displacements following the First Karabakh war. The same can be said for Armenians who used to live in Azerbaijan. However, Aliyev speaking in riddles about such claims on sovereign, internationally-recognised territory should be seen as a real threat in the current context.
Russia would technically not allow any transgressions into Armenia proper (they have a military base based in the country), but even so these chauvinistic activities only seek to deepen mistrust between the two sides.
Conclusion
In the backdrop of the ceasefire last year, as of yet there has been no documented meaningful steps to reduce the divide between Azerbaijan and Artsakh, despite Azerbaijan having every initiative. Simply put, the only conclusion that can be made so far is that this long conflict is anything but resolved in the long term.
In five years time, the Russian peacekeeping mission will be reviewed to decide whether it will stay another five year period (the limit to the mission) or pack up. My feeling is, if things continue as-is, another devastating escalation is not just possible; it is a foregone conclusion.
Further reading…
Do you wonder why very little is ever reported in the media? As usual the logical move is to follow the money. Read this Vice article for one of numerous example of how Azerbaijan uses its petrodollars to silence the world on condemning it’s government’s despotic regime.
